Are property prices about to bounce back?
By Esther Taunton Published: January 31, 2025 •05:00am
The property market is close to a trough and a rebound in prices could be taking shape, CoreLogic says. (File photo)Rosa Woods / The Post
fast facts
- A rebound in property prices could be taking shape, CoreLogic says.
- Property values fell only slightly in January, the fifth month in a row with limited movement.
- However, a sharp upturn in property values is unlikely while the economy remains soft.
The property market is close to a trough and a rebound in prices could be taking shape, data suggests.
Property values across Aotearoa edged 0.1% lower in January, the fifth month in a row with limited movement, according to CoreLogic’s home value index (HVI).
After falling 4.1% over the six months to August, values have fallen only 0.4% since then, a potential sign that a rebound in prices could be taking shape, CoreLogic chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said.
The national median value now stands at $803,819, which is 17.5% below the record highs of late 2021 and early 2022, but still 16.3% above the pre-Covid level of March 2020.
Westpac’s Economic Overview predicts growth for New Zealand
January was a “broadly flat” month around the main centres, with Tauranga and Dunedin both seeing growth of 0.1%, while Auckland and Christchurch both fell 0.1%.
Hamilton stood out, growing 0.5%, while Wellington remained soft, down 0.6%.
Davidson said the recent stability in property values on a national level could be a sign of growth potential.
“Since the ‘mini downturn’ seen through the middle part of last year petered out in August, national property values have been in a holding pattern ‒ not moving clearly in either direction,” he said.
CoreLogic chief property economist Kelvin Davidson says property values have been in a holding pattern for months. (File photo)Joseph Johnson / The Press
“But with mortgage rates having dropped significantly from their peaks, property sales volumes have continued to rise in recent months and may well start to reduce the available stock of listings on the market in the near term.
“That would create more competitive pressure amongst buyers, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see property values start to rise again shortly.”
However, some caution was still warranted, as not all areas had stopped falling.
While the economy remained soft and the labour market subdued, a sharp upturn in values was unlikely, he said.
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